[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Dec 15 13:41:57 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 151337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151337 
GAZ000-FLZ000-151430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND COASTAL BEND...SWRN GA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 897...

VALID 151337Z - 151430Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BAND...INDICATED AT 13Z FROM NRN WALTON COUNTY FL SSWWD ACROSS VPS
AREA OVER OPEN GULF.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COMBINED MARINE/WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OLD MCS...NEAR LINE FROM 60 W PIE...15 S AAF...40 S
VPS.  TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
S OF THIS FRONT THEN WEAKENED AS THEY EITHER MOVE PROGRESSIVELY
FARTHER N OF FRONTAL ZONE OR BECOME ABSORBED BY MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS IN WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...AS REGIME SHIFTS EWD TOWARD
SEWD-ORIENTED COASTLINE THROUGH 15Z...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE
FROM PFN AREA SEWD TO VICINITY AAF WHERE WARM FRONT -- AND
ASSOCIATED NEARLY SFC-BASED PARCELS -- IMPINGE ON COASTLINE. 
THEREAFTER...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE OVER TLH REGION AND
FL COASTAL BEND...AS COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WAA RELATED
TO VEERING SFC FLOW ACT TO BOOST SFC THETAE AND INTRODUCE AT LEAST
MARGINAL SBCAPES 300-800 J/KG. SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG ALREADY ARE
EVIDENT N OF WARM FRONT OVER NARROW AREA BETWEEN MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND AND PFN...WHERE 0-1 KM SRH 300-600 J/KG IS EVIDENT BASED ON
MODIFIED TLH RAOB...VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 12/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

29378319 29348520 30008652 30468633 30858609 31008484
30998289 30348319 

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