[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311122 
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-311245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA/SRN NY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 763...

VALID 311122Z - 311245Z

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE ACROSS
WW...ALONG WITH LOCAL SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW...WITH STRONGEST STORMS CONFINED TO NERN
PORTIONS OF WW.  THOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS REMAINED LIMITED...VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION.  THOUGH
INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT...MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OVER NERN PORTIONS OF WW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR SPREADING N OF WW...AND EXTENDING E OF WW ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS/EVOLVING
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 08/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

42727665 42927468 42657340 41387346 40627549 40587731 

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