[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310647 
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-310815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA / S CENTRAL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL 

VALID 310647Z - 310815Z

THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
CENTRAL PA...AND SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO SRN NY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.  NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD PA...WHICH DESPITE WEAK
LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. 
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF PA/SRN NY...AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF KATRINA NOW
CENTERED AT LOW-LEVELS OVER OH.  LATEST STATE COLLEGE PA /CCX/ VWP
SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /40 KT FROM THE SFC TO 1 KM/...MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. 
ADDITIONALLY...SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED --
WITH TWO SEPARATE SMALL-SCALE LINES NOW CROSSING CENTRAL PA.  WITH
WIND DAMAGE RECENTLY REPORTED WITH ONE OF THESE LINES -- AS WELL AS
WITH THE MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING NORTHUMBERLAND
COUNTY...IT APPEARS THAT DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS NEW WW
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 08/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

41757906 42597761 42827622 42477525 42007506 41307525
40027649 39647835 39797923 

WWWW