[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310219 
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-310415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...NRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 310219Z - 310415Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A FEW SHALLOW/SMALL SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS REGION AND/OR MOVE NEWD FROM WW 762.  AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.  GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A
TORNADO.  COUNTERBALANCING FACTORS INCLUDE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY AND
LIKELIHOOD OF LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. 

EXPECT 0-3 AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS TO ENLARGE GRADUALLY AS ERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS AREA...IN
TUNE WITH CENTER OF REMAINS OF KATRINA FARTHER W OVER OH.  IAD
RAOB...REGIONAL VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 100-200 J/KG SRH IN
0-1 KM LAYER IN THIS REGIME...EFFECTIVE SHEARS VARYING FROM 40-60
KT.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC TEMPS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SBCAPES
LESS THAN 700 J/KG...AMIDST WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY MAY CHANGE LITTLE BECAUSE OF WEAK/SELY SFC MOIST
ADVECTION OFFSETTING GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING. STORM TOPS WILL BE
LOWERED BECAUSE OF SLIM CAPE PROFILE...ASSOCIATED WEAK PARCEL
ACCELERATIONS...AND 300-400 MB STABLE LAYER SAMPLED BY 00Z IAD
SOUNDING.

..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

39537776 39757801 40247774 40917693 41097558 40637521
39807567 39097651 38997679 39557733 

WWWW