[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310039 
NDZ000-SDZ000-310245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL ND/SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 310039Z - 310245Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND
GUSTS...SPREADING EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF ND
AND SD. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITING EWD ACROSS ERN
MT AND WRN WY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADS EWD AND INTERCEPTS RELATIVE
THETA-E/INSTABILITY...AREAL TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING ALONG/BEHIND SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR INVOF
WEYBURN/ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT ALSO
NOTED INVOF MINOT ND...AND NEAR RAPID CITY SD.

00Z OBSERVED BISMARK RAOB IS SUPPORTIVE OF 1500-1750 J/KG MUCAPE FOR
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ELEVATED NATURE OF PARCELS...GIVEN POST-FRONTAL
REGIME/NOCTURNAL COOLING. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE MAIN  HAZARD AMIDST
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 08/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

46140257 48540393 48880357 48810046 47589939 44179909
43640105 43880249 

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