[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310025 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-310230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN MD...DC...CENTRAL/NRN VA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762...

VALID 310025Z - 310230Z

MOST TSTMS SHOW DIMINISHING TREND ATTM AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO
SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND OVERALL TENDENCY SHOULD BE OF
WEAKENING FOR REMAINDER OF WW DURATION BECAUSE OF GRADUAL DIABATIC
COOLING IN BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN BROADLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP AND FCST BY RUC SOUNDINGS FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. LATEST STERLING/LWX VWP YIELDS 0-1 KM SRH APPROXIMATELY 200
J/KG FOR NEWD MOVING CELLS...AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 45-55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD ROTATE AND MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.  THEREFORE WW SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS DESPITE DECREASING
GENERAL TREND IN CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX...

36807883 38137999 39747747 38387631 

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