[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300305 
GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-300500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN AL...FL PANHANDLE EXCEPT FAR
W...EXTREME NWRN FL PENINSULA...MUCH OF GA EXCEPT COASTAL
REGION...EXTREME NWRN SC...SERN AND EXTREME SRN-MIDDLE TN...EXTREME
SWRN NC.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 757...

VALID 300305Z - 300500Z

NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS AND OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING
NOCTURNALLY WITH GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING OF SFC AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WW SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING CONVERGENCE BAND.  AT LEAST
MARGINAL BUOYANCY IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN GULF
COAST. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND VWP INDICATE LARGE HODOGRAPHS  WITH
0-1 KM SRH 200-800 J/KG...DEPENDING GREATLY ON DEGREE OF RIGHTWARD
STORM DEVIANCE THAT IS INPUT.  ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ROTATING AND PRODUCING TORNADOES. 
SHEAR PROFILES DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM GA/SC
BORDER.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED
CONFLUENCE/PRECIP BAND OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF TS KATRINA CIRCULATION
-- EXTENDING AS OF 230Z FROM MORGAN COUNTY AL SSEWD TOWARD COOSA
COUNTY...THEN SSWWD ACROSS PNS.  W OF THIS BAND...RISING ISALLOBARIC
TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED VEERING SFC FLOW RESULT IN WEAKENING
CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...BENEATH
LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING.

..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...

34918773 35168695 35438565 35538493 35468424 35348368
34808305 34248276 33508261 32618224 32128231 31918269
31488301 30088309 29668382 29618476 29658527 29748542
30168583 30508641 30648706 31348648 32488626 32838638
33028671 34488758 

WWWW