[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300459
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300459 
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-300800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN AND S-CENTRAL KY...MIDDLE/WRN
TN...EXTREME NRN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 300459Z - 300800Z

PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TS KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING NWD AND NNEWD FROM NRN PORTIONS MS/AL AND TN INTO
WRN/CENTRAL KY.  STEADY 1-2 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH LOCAL 3-4 INCH/HOUR RATES IN HEAVIEST EMBEDDED BANDS AND CORES.


VERY EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN NRN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION.  BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN SMALL
BECAUSE OF WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...HOWEVER MASS CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED AMIDST VERY
MOIST AIR MASS NE-NW OF CENTER.  PW 2-2.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN COMMON
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF MID/WRN TN...AND REGIME SHOULD
SHIFT NWD INTO KY THROUGH 9Z.

..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

34998668 35318719 35728783 36038850 36208894 36628904
37038840 37548679 37188538 35888507 34988559 34818576 

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