[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292312 
GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA...AL...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME
WRN SC...EXTREME SWRN NC...PORTIONS SRN-MIDDLE AND SERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 755...756...

VALID 292312Z - 300015Z

WW 755 AND 756 WILL BE REPLACED AND CONSOLIDATED SHORTLY...BECAUSE
OF CONTINUATION OF TORNADO THREAT OVER MUCH OF REGION AND SLOW NNEWD
SHIFT/EXPANSION OF THREAT TOWARD GA/TN AND GA/NC BORDERS.  SEVERAL
TORNADOES ALREADY GAVE BEEN REPORTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN GA
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE MOVING NWD TOWARD NC/TN STATE LINES.  NUMEROUS
SMALL/TIGHTLY DEFINED MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN AVAILABLE
SRM DATA FROM DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN AL/SWRN GA BANDS AS
WELL.  LACK OF REPORTS FROM THAT AREA SO FAR MAY NOT NECESSARILY
MEAN LACK OF ACTUAL TORNADOES YET...BECAUSE OF COMMUNICATIONS
SITUATION.

ALTHOUGH NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
DARK BECAUSE OF GRADUAL LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND WEAKNESS OF
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY BECAUSE OF VERY RICH
MOISTURE.  SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD
BECAUSE OF LARGE AREA COVERED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR...HOWEVER GREATEST
CONCENTRATION WILL REMAIN INVOF 4 MAIN CONVERGENCE BANDS -- TWO NOW
EXTENDING N-S ACROSS MUCH OF WRN GA AND TWO OTHERS OVER CENTRAL/SERN
AL MOVING NWD. VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS SHOW 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 700
J/KG IN CENTRAL AL...GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT TO 100-200
J/KG IN CENTRAL GA.  NRN PORTION OF THIS REGIME WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
PORTIONS SERN TN AND SWRN NC WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.  MEANWHILE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM SW BECAUSE OF WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE NEAR AND SE OF CENTER OF KATRINA.

..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

29888390 29708416 29698524 30078598 31038694 32128762
32838859 33588794 34788768 34998710 35348570 35498443
35458353 34758298 33688314 31568338 30388362 

WWWW