[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292242 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN MS...CENTRAL/NWRN AL...SRN PORTIONS OF
WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 292242Z - 300145Z

NERN INNER-CORE REGION OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS
THIS REGION...WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL RATES 2-4
INCHES/HOUR.  THIS WILL COMPOUND HAZARD BEGUN BY OUTER BAND RAINS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW PASSING ACROSS NRN PART OF DISCUSSION
AREA.

STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 100-120 NM E THROUGH NW OF
CENTER OF KATRINA...REMAINING PRIMARY FACTOR IN CONCENTRATING HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCTION AS PRECIP PLUME MOVES OVHD FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCALE WITHIN THIS SWATH.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TYPICALLY
RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...I.E. PW 2.25-2.75 THAT IS ESTIMATED BASED
ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS.  VERY EFFICIENT WARM
CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES DO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS
REGIME...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF ACTIVITY TO TC CORE AND LACK OF CG
LIGHTNING DETECTED.

..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

32758730 33378783 33588839 34028959 33809027 34729047
35379001 35548904 35348769 34708681 33618646 32818665
32638718 

WWWW