[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260330 
SDZ000-260500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260330Z - 260500Z

A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SD
OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.

FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER NERN WY AND
WRN SD HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER JACKSON...BENNETT AND MELLETTE COUNTIES
IN SWRN/S-CNTRL SD.  INSPECTION OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN
VIEW DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EWD
INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED PARCELS
/I.E. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/.  GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF
30-40 KTS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. DESPITE MODESTLY WARM THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAN DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 08/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43500101 44380013 44999857 44919736 44439702 43829720
43379767 43119814 43019895 43050076 

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