[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260428 
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-260600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746...

VALID 260428Z - 260600Z

THROUGH 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 746.

AS OF 0415Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR MCS
EXTENDING FROM DAWSON COUNTY NEB SWD INTO SHERIDAN AND GOVE COUNTIES
IN NWRN KS WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF 25-30 KTS.  A SMALLER
CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS ALSO OBSERVED OVER BROWN...ROCK AND LOUP
COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL NEB...ALSO MOVING EWD AT 25-30 KTS. WHILE PLAN
VIEW RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR
MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG...INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWS A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT: 1) STORMS ARE EITHER BECOMING
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY-LAYER...OR 2) SYSTEM
COLD POOL IS MAINTAINING SURFACE-BASED STORMS...HOWEVER PARCEL
BUOYANCY IS BEING DILUTED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER WRN SD AND WRN NEB WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS
EWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW AREA AND POINTS E OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WHILE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERITY OF
THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

..MEAD.. 08/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...

38790185 43010078 42829785 38719906 

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