[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260106 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB/W-CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 745...

VALID 260106Z - 260200Z

THROUGH 04Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.

AS OF 0056Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER
FAR SERN ND INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN MN LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMUM ROTATING NEWD
AROUND SASKATCHEWAN UPPER LOW. FARTHER TO THE SW...AN ADDITIONAL
SMALLER TSTM COMPLEX /PERIODICALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS/ WAS NOTED OVER GREGORY COUNTY SD AND BOYD AND KEYA
PAHA COUNTIES IN NEB MOVING GENERALLY SWD AT 10 KTS.  BETWEEN THESE
STORM CLUSTERS...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH OVER THE
PAST HOUR. 

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS NEB
PORTION OF WW AHEAD OF WEAKER SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HERE...PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS /REF. 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ COUPLED WITH AN INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ
SHOULD MAINTAIN N-CNTRL NEB STORMS...AS WELL AS LEAD TO FURTHER
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS ACROSS WW AREA.

..MEAD.. 08/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

45989802 45949512 42079809 42080074 

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