[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252216 
FLZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 252216Z - 260045Z

POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-3
INCHES WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP WWD ACROSS THE LOWER ERN/CNTRL FL
PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE KATRINA.

AS OF 2206Z...MIA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER 20 NE
OF MIA WITH A VERY SLOW WWD MOVEMENT. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT...WHEN
COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PW/S AOA
2.50-2.60 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
INDEED...MIA 1-HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION ALGORITHM INDICATES
1.0-1.5 INCHES S OF CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 5 SSW MIA TO 30 ESE
MIA...INCREASING TO 2-3 INCHES E OF CENTER APPROXIMATELY 40 ENE MIA.
THUS...EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE AS KATRINA MOVES FURTHER
ONSHORE...ALLOWING MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS OBSERVED E OF
CIRCULATION CENTER TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS.

..MEAD.. 08/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

26278101 26408074 26378008 26027999 25568005 25358028
25348062 25428089 25658101 25978114 

WWWW