[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252109 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL...WRN TN...AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252109Z - 252315Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SERN MO EWD INTO SRN IL/WRN
KY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE STORMS ARE
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN AR INTO WRN TN. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. 

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX GENERATED FROM MORNING CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO W-CENTRAL IL AT 21Z. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
HEATED STRONGLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...NEAR THE
JUNCTION OF THE MS/OH RIVERS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90S
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS BASED ON THE RUC INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL
CIN. NARROW ZONE OF 30-40KT SFC-6KM SHEAR EXISTS SOUTH OF MCV
CENTER...ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN IL WHERE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
EXISTS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD A CORRIDOR OF LONG-LIVED
CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN AR/WRN
TN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER AND ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD EXHIBIT
PULSE CHARACTERISTICS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET.

..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

38099094 38389025 38418798 36848831 35968875 35548927
35419038 35579205 35889243 

WWWW