[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314 
MNZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252314Z - 260015Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST N OF WW 745 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED E OF THE RED RIVER OVER
WILKIN COUNTY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS STORM OVER WRN
OTTER TAIL COUNTY MOVING 260/25 KTS.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES
LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RATHER MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  

CURRENT WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER AND RUC PROXIMITY HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL WITH RESULTANT 0-3
KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS.  GIVEN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT THAT
THIS SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EWD
TOWARD BRD.  RELATIVELY WEAKNESS IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
WOULD INDICATE THAT STORM SHOULD REMAIN HIGH-PRECIPITATION IN
CHARACTER WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

46629649 46839605 46849502 46609411 46209412 45949483
46069647 

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