[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242238 
NDZ000-SDZ000-250015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND/SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242238Z - 250015Z

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG
SURFACE FRONT FROM BOTTINEAU SWD THROUGH EMMONS COUNTIES IN CNTRL
ND...AS WELL AS OVER DEWEY COUNTY IN CNTRL SD. BILLOW CLOUDS
OBSERVED ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN ND INDICATE
THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER REMAINS STABLE EXCEPT FOR ONLY A NARROW ZONE
ALONG FRONT WHERE THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING ALONG FRONT OVER SAME GENERAL AREA
AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER
SWRN SASKATCHEWAN OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE.  FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT WILL EXIST WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS GIVEN CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA.

FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT INVOF
SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD.  HERE...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY-LAYER.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION INITIATE.

..MEAD.. 08/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

48490138 48990122 49039982 47679891 45079907 44040005
43550096 43500182 43970210 44920136 46500117 

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