[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241931 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241931Z - 242130Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR TX
PANHANDLE...WRN AND NCNTRL OK INTO FAR SRN KS. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
NCNTRL OK ARE IN THE MID 70S F RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 4000 TO
5000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT FROM CNTRL OK NWWD INTO SW KS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR A BRIEF SPINUP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 08/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36979716 36349668 35759695 35009882 35169980 35750019
36669979 37259800 

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