[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241922 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-242115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY...SWRN SD...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241922Z - 242115Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FROM FAR E-CENTRAL/SERN WY EWD INTO SWRN SD AND THE
NEB PANHANDLE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH
DRY MICROBURSTS.

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS N-CENTRAL MT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH A SURFACE LOW IN
S-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO JUST WEST
OF BIS TO JUST SOUTH OF RAP...AND WWD TO 30N CAP AS OF 19Z. FRONT
SHOULD STALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS GIVEN WEAK
FLOW IN THE COLD SECTOR.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING WLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WY.
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL WY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. QUESTION IS WHETHER
CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL POSITION NEAR THE TRI-BORDER AREA OF WY/NEB/SD.
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IS ABSENT...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK. ALSO...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WITH LIMITED DEEP-LAYER FORCING...EXPECTATION IS FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 45F
DURING PEAK HEATING MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER EWD
INTO SWRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..BANACOS.. 08/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

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