[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232051 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...NERN NM...AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232051Z - 232245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM SERN CO SWD ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLES.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING EWD INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FOR AN INCREASING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AT 23/2030Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
NERN NM/SERN CO BORDER SWD TO NEAR TCC. AREA VAD/PROFILER DATA
INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS UT...AND SEWD
EXTENTION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. SFC-3KM
LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS
FOCUSED NORTH OF SURFACE TROUGH/SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ACROSS THE WRN OK
PANHANDLE. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000
J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES INTO SERN
CO...WITH WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AS MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION INTO THIS REGION...NORTH OF DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT
FROM 35NE DHT TO 15NE CSM. THE 18Z NAM INDICATES A SSWLY 850MB JET
MAX OF 35-40KT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 05Z.

..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

37390397 37930369 37830073 37150061 34820069 34970377 

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