[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232003 
MTZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232003Z - 232130Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS INTENSIFY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS WRN AND NRN MT
THIS AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND. THE
STORMS ARE LOCATED IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
MT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
BAND OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR FROM ERN WA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW
MT INTO SRN CANADA. AS A RESULT...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 35 TO
40 KTS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR
A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...

47681009 47531160 47861245 48461264 48921233 48861037
48860875 48120911 

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