[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231925 
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-232100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AR...FAR WRN TN...AND FAR NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231925Z - 232100Z

SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 10-15KT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS
E-CENTRAL INTO ERN AR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME DUE TO SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF STORMS
AND EXPECTED ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

AT 1910Z...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AR. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX DEVELOPED FROM
MORNING CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL OK HAS MOVED INTO FAR NWRN AR.
THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE ORGANIZED A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING FROM 30SW HRO TO 45 NW HOT. AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS E-CENTRAL/ERN AR DOWNSTREAM OF
MCV. SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL AR TO
INTERSECT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTH OF LIT. WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...THESE SFC BOUNDARIES AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL AR.
NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG.
DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20KT...MESOSCALE FORCING
AND MINIMAL CIN WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE EVENT A LARGER COLD POOL
CAN DEVELOP WITH ONGOING STORMS...PRESENTING A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..BANACOS.. 08/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

35919302 36099250 36099161 35999055 35458989 34599013
33669061 33619117 33669204 33819269 34029317 34339332 

WWWW