[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231906 
AZZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231906Z - 232030Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NE AZ OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING ON THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND ARE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL AZ WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY FROM CNTRL AZ TO
NERN AZ. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS AS
THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD INTO THE WEAKER INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...

34240983 34201050 34751140 35661188 36301215 36681199
36821126 36491009 35790947 35050932 34520940 

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