[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231825 
COZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231825Z - 232030Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND NE CO
BY MID-AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN CO IN RESPONSE TO
AN EWD APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS
LIFT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXPAND. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ENCOUNTERING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ALONG WITH MUCAPES ABOVE
1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL CO. THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER NE CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE AN  ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...GJT...

40080638 40770616 40930434 40910297 40680220 39650212
39310275 39220442 39390615