[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221815 
KSZ000-COZ000-222015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221815Z - 222015Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO AS STORM
COVERAGE INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND
ISOLATED.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NE CO. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCNTRL CO AND MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN
PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 1000
J/KG AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER SRN CO WILL MOVE EWD
TODAY GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM ABOUT 20 KT TO
ABOUT 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WITH MCS
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY THE EVENING HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 08/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

39250489 40160363 40120268 39770219 38750186 37930237
37480346 37650441 38230533 

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