[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202126 
IAZ000-NEZ000-202300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202126Z - 202300Z

A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH ANY ISOLD TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO
WRN IA. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MDT TOWERING CU EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IN W-E CORRIDOR 
ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ALLIANCE NEB TO ORD NEB TO JUST
NORTH OF THE OMAHA AREA. AMIDST MOST VIGOROUS CU FIELD...TSTM HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER JUST NORTH OF THE OMAHA
METRO. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THIS REGION REMAINS RATHER
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT/MASS CONVERGENCE...A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS DEPICT AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF AVAILABLE MLCAPE AMIDST RELATIVELY MINIMAL CINH.
FAIRBURY/NELIGH NEB PROFILERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OMAHA WSR-88D VAD
SUGGEST AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. OVERALL
ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE OF SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 08/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF...

42139571 42049451 41529453 41019633 41099836 41550134
41860160 42140124 42129971 42069756 

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