[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202310 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-210045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KY...SRN AND ERN OH...WRN AND NRN
WV...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738...739...

VALID 202310Z - 210045Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS WW 739. STRONGER STORMS MOVING THROUGH SWRN PA
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF WW 738...AND SEVERE THREAT MAY
SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS S CNTRL PA. HOWEVER...OVERALL TRENDS SHOULD
BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AND THEREFORE
ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN PA AT AROUND 25 KT.
THE LEADING STORMS ARE NEARING THE ERN PARTS OF WW 738 AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH S
CNTRL PA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. KINEMATIC
PROFILES AND 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOW ECHOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS WW 738. WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR FARTHER S
SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS WITHIN WW 739. DAMAGING WIND
REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE HAIL THREAT IS LIMITED BY WARM MID
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 01Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO COOL.

..DIAL.. 08/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

38028428 40488055 41057768 40227671 39567769 39077983
37898231