[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202006 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-202130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KY...SRN OH...WRN/CENTRAL WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202006Z - 202130Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT AND/OR EXPAND EWD FROM WW 737...AND
S OF WW 738.  ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THIS AREA.  

BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER OH/WV BORDER REGION NWD ACROSS PORTIONS
EXISTING WWS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...GREATLY WEAKENING CINH AND
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AND MOVE IN FROM
W.  ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL AIR IS RELATIVELY WARM -- 3-4 DEG C BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS -- DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE IS
EVIDENT WITH MLCAPES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER
MUCH OF THIS AREA.  DEEP ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER MAY RESTRICT
AMOUNT/SIZE OF HAIL REACHING SFC.  HOWEVER...DAMAGING GUSTS ARE A
CONCERN GIVEN SIZE OF BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR.  EXPECT 0-6 KM SHEAR TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN...SE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH...AND UP TO
ABOUT 100 DEG OF VEERING IS EVIDENT IN THAT LAYER BASED ON VWP FROM
JKL AND RLX RADARS.  VWP/PROFILER TIME SERIES INDICATE SPEED MAX
EARLIER OVER NRN INDIANA IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN OH ATTM.  THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...PRIND KINEMATIC
SUPPORT WILL EXIST FOR WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER DISCUSSION AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

37968435 38688301 39298288 39708248 39668108 39398022
38918007 38528028 37848107 37888378 

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