[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201921 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-202115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/FAR SRN KS INTO ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 201921Z - 202115Z

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL ACROSS
NRN OK/FAR SRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2.0 IN/HR WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK.

STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG NEARLY STALLED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR ALVA OK TO BETWEEN PONCA CITY/STILLWATER...TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE TULSA METRO AREA. MASS CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS NRN OK/FAR SCNTRL KS
INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

AMBIENT AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
3000 J/KG MAXIMIZED ACROSS NCNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES
ARE LARGELY SUGGESTIVE OF LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION...RELATIVELY
GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF NCNTRL/NE OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED RATES TO 1.5-2.O IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS...NAMELY ACROSS NRN OK.

..GUYER.. 08/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

37099789 37039738 36619568 35719599 35659755 35629820
35119913 35290013 36210083 37110080 37459905 37289844 

WWWW