[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201911 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-202045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN INDIANA...NRN
KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 737...738...

VALID 201911Z - 202045Z

MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT
1845Z FROM CRAWFORD/HARDIN COUNTIES OH SWWD ACROSS SWRN CORNER
INDIANA.  ALSO...TCU EVIDENT NE OF FWA MAY DELAY CLEARING OF WW OVER
NWRN OH...IN EVENT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS ASSOCIATED LIFT
MOVES EWD.  ALSO...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER ERN OH
AND PA...REQUIRING WW 738 ISSUANCE.

INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...AS
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SE OF
UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  18Z ILN RAOB ILLUSTRATES
EFFECTS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HEAT/MOISTURE OFFSETTING WARMTH ALOFT
-- WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE DESPITE 500 MB TEMPS ONLY -3 DEG C. 
MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. 
ALSO...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
LAWRENCE BOUNTY PA WWD THROUGH WAYNE COUNTY OH.  ALSO EVIDENT IS
WELL DEFINED THETAE GRADIENT NEAR LINE FROM HLG-CAK CORRESPONDING TO
ERN EDGE OF LOW-MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS.  THIS FEATURE INTERSECTS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR CAK...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL
COMBINE WITH ALREADY STRONG HEATING TO MAKE CINH NEGLIGIBLE AND
BOOST MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...

37898461 37868774 41588361 41758168 42018083 42288017
42167991 41767955 41347903 40867879 40337897 39847960
39588037 39548091 39568230 38838287 38348349 37968453 

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