[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201835 
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-202030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AND FAR NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201835Z - 202030Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLD LARGE HAIL INCREASING ALONG E-W
CORRIDOR FROM FAR SRN IL/WRN KY INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AND FAR NE OK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE FROM FAR SRN IL/WRN KY WESTWARD INTO
FAR NE OK...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING AND VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES.
ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST 2000-2750 J/KG AVAILABLE
MLCAPE AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG
INSTABILITY...HASKELL OK/CONWAY MO/BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILERS
REPRESENTATIVE OF ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW WIND PROFILES THROUGH 6 KM AND AROUND 20 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MILD TEMPS ALOFT...ISOLD
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD SUFFICIENT STORM ORGANIZATION BECOME
APPARENT.

..GUYER.. 08/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

35329269 35249434 35849500 36399523 36799335 37259197
37509095 37938824 37078809 36738844 35939027 

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