[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201743 
KSZ000-OKZ000-201945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NE OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 201743Z - 201945Z

HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 IN/HR...EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SE/SCNTRL KS...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME NE OK.

SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS CORRIDOR OF ONGOING HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM JUST S/SE OF WICHITA NEAR WELLINGTON KS...E/NE TO NEAR
THE CHANUTE KS VICINITY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW PERSISTENCE OF VERY COLD -60 TO -65 C CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
OVER FAR SE KS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LAMONT OK/VICI OK
PROFILERS SUGGEST A PERSISTENCE OF MODEST SWLY WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM. THIS REGIME
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MESOSCALE COLD/BUBBLE HIGH ACROSS FAR
SCNTRL/SE KS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LIKELY
REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS FAR SCNTRL KS AND SUBSEQUENT
ESE PROPAGATION. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH INTO MID AFTERNOON AS LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL SWLY TRAJECTORIES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

..GUYER.. 08/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37569773 37649688 37649571 37639470 37229465 36799649
36819773 37409787 

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