[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201631 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...PORTIONS ERN/SRN INDIANA...NRN
KY...EXTREME SERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201631Z - 201800Z

TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WIND PRODUCERS AS THEY
MOVE EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WHERE WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN NEXT
1-2 HOURS.

PROSPECTIVE INFLOW AIR OVER INDIANA/OH/NRN KY SOON WILL BECOME
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT...POSSIBLY DERECHO CALIBER.  VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM
NERN INDIANA SWWD ROUGHLY ALONG HUF...MVN...CGI LINE...MOVING EWD
APPROXIMATELY 35 KT.  SWRN PORTION OF THIS LINE OVER IL BECOMES
COLOCATED WITH PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY...STILL CHARACTERIZED BY SFC PRESSURE RISES TO ITS W. 
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE DEEPENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SRN
IL PORTION OF THIS BAND...AND ALSO OVER SEGMENT NNE IND.  DURING
NEXT 2-3 HOURS...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN BAND AND MOVE INTO RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS RISING INTO LOW 90S F
AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S.  DESPITE WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS...VERY
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE YIELDS DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE WITH VERY
WEAK CINH...MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND DCAPE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. 
GIVEN MIDLEVEL WINDS UP TO 60 KT -- PER WLC PROFILER -- AND AT LEAST
40 KT ALOFT OVER MUCH OF AREA...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EPISODE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

38028578 37878685 37798790 37898858 38168875 38668794
39338677 39868580 40578514 41608468 41718396 41608289
41658144 40908105 39628154 38848255 38208400 38068532 

WWWW