[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192312 
NYZ000-PAZ000-200045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/NW PA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735...

VALID 192312Z - 200045Z

VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 735 CONTINUES FOR WRN NY/NW PA UNTIL
02Z. THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUES...AS WELL AS LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

A SLIVER OF UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS PRIMARILY INVOF LAKE ERIE/LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE SHORE...WITH MODIFIED 18Z BUF RAOB SUGGESTIVE OF
750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS FAR WRN NY/FAR NW PA. IN SPITE OF THE
MARGINAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 735...AMBIENT
FLOW FIELDS NEVERTHELESS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/UPDRAFT
ROTATION. IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN
200 MS/S2 -- OWING TO BACKED S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GUYER.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

43017946 43497916 43657875 43667758 43637678 43167693
42367747 41707812 41227858 41287936 41378037 41758040 

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