[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192109 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-192315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO/SRN IL/SW IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192109Z - 192315Z

ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NE MO/SRN IL INTO SW IN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SHOULD STORM COVERAGE PROVE
SUFFICIENT.

AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS EXTENDING
WNW-ESE FROM FAR NE MO/SRN IL INTO SW IN. AN ISOLD STORM HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED EAST OF STL AS OF 21Z. AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION AND
MID/UPPER 90S SFC TEMPS/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. MODEST DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING COVERAGE OF STORMS
GIVEN MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE/WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39509199 40279184 40349122 39508872 38808605 37918647
38118774 38508987 38849064 

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