[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192030 
MNZ000-IAZ000-192230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN INTO NCNTRL/NW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192030Z - 192230Z

MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION
FROM SRN MN INTO NW/NCNTRL IA. PROVIDED DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUAL
DESTABILIZATION...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALTHOUGH GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING...RELATIVELY THICK
CLOUD COVER HAS THUS FAR HINDERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN
MN INTO NRN IA AS OF 2030Z. NNE-SSW ORIENTED CELLULAR CU FIELD IS
EVIDENT ALONG/JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MN INTO NW IA AT
THIS TIME...WHILE PEEKS OF CELLULAR CU ALSO NOTED OVER SCNTRL MN
BENEATH CANOPY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS...NEAR WEAK SFC LOW
ANALYZED NORTH OF MKT.

AS CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING CINH. AMBIENT VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH 40-55 KT MID LEVEL FLOW
PER WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER/FSD WSR-88D VAD/18Z OAX RAOB.

GIVEN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION/BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN MN
INTO NW/CNTRL IA. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING ERN NEB/FAR WCNTRL IA TSTMS
MAY ALSO EXPAND NEWD THROUGH NRN IA/SRN MN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42569377 41829603 42499621 44239487 45379420 45419312
44669277 43909240 43089283 

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