[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191952 
KSZ000-192045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191952Z - 192045Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INVOF ENE-WSW ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MAY
REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE MESOLOW INVOF
FORD/HODGEMAN COUNTY LINE WITH CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS GBD...SLN AND MHK AREAS.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS N OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL.  SFC-BASED
SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE ALONG BOUNDARY...GIVEN INFLOW-LAYER
MLCAPES 2000-4000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS RELATED TO
1. MIDLEVEL WINDS 35-45 KT -- PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY AND
2. ENELY/NELY SFC WINDS ALONG AND N OF IT...RESULTING IN ELONGATION
OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS WITHIN 15-20 NM S OF BOUNDARY BEND NWWD
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC FORCING NE OF SFC
LOW...AND INDICATE ENHANCED 0-3 KM AGL SHEAR EXTENDS SOMEWHAT SWD
INTO STRONGLY HEATED WARM SECTOR.

..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38249738 37839811 37549921 37379975 37480019 37950026
39340054 39849996 39909789 39739600 38809607