[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191850 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO...SERN
NEB...SWRN/S-CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 191850Z - 192045Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED SEVERE TSTMS FROM NERN KS NEWD
TOWARD PORTIONS S-CENTRAL IA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON -- SE OF LARGE
MASS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP NOW OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB.  AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AS OF 1830Z...GENERALLY FROM
LEAVENWORTH COUNTY WWD TO BETWEEN CNK-RSL.  THIS IS INVOF
DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER NERN KS...WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED AS A RESULT OF
EARLIER/DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER.  INFLOW-LAYER TRAJECTORIES SHOULD
EMANATE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER OVER E-CENTRAL KS THAT WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE.  MODIFIED 18Z TOP/OAX RAOBS INDICATE SFC TEMPS LOW-MID
90S...AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...COMBINE WITH 7-8 DEG C/KM
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. 
RUC APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING MLCAPE BECAUSE OF EXCESSIVELY
MIXED AND TOO-DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY N OF BOUNDARY.  BUT
WHEN MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY...ITS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD EVEN LARGER
BUOYANCY APCHG 5000 J/KG.  WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE...PER LATEST NERN KS/SERN NEB
VWP/PROFILER DATA.  HOWEVER...STRONGER/30-40 KT FLOW ALOFT AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
AND/OR BOW ECHOES TO FORM...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL
LARGE HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

39169471 39219619 38939812 39089858 39389856 40059728
40669582 41079434 41029326 40459247 39689270 39389323 

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