[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191832 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-192030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191832Z - 192030Z

MONITORING FOR INDICATIONS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE OH/WRN
PA/WRN NY...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AT 1830Z...STRONG TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS SW ONTARIO JUST WEST OF THE
HAMILTON/TORONTO CANADA AREAS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP/BUILD SWD ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NE OH/WRN PA/WRN NY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/DEEPEN OVER NE
OH/LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME...LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENCE/WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NW OH. ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ALONG EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN PA INTO WRN NY...WHERE MAX PRESSURE
FALLS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED.

AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS AND
MODIFIED 18Z PIT RAOB...WHILE VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE
HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED TO SLY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PROGRESSIVE ENLARGEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

43367858 43577710 43467705 42787705 42427736 42227761
41857869 40097898 40007916 40078094 40318222 40588238
40838230 41648203 42337976 42827917 

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