[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191749 
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN IL...SRN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL/NERN
KY...SRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191749Z - 191915Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTMS FROM SERN IL ESEWD TOWARD
ERN KY.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE IN LOW LEVELS.  COMBINATION OF
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND 30-40 KT WNW FLOW ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS
ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVIATE SEWD
TO SWD OFF MEAN WIND VECTOR.  ADJUSTED VWP OBSERVATIONS AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG...AND ABOUT 40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN S OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY
ERODE CAP...SUPPORTING EITHER NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR
EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
SFC-BASED TSTMS.  DESPITE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG SFC
HEATING AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES 2000-3000
J/KG IN SOME PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LIMITED WITH SRN EXTENT TOWARD TN/KY BORDER BY WEAKENING FLOW AND
WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...LEADING TO DIMINISHMENT BOTH OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALOFT.

..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

39168796 39618648 39648572 39748419 39438271 39038235
38348254 37748345 37618453 37668590 38218745 38468808 

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