[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191555 
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-191800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL KS...SWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 191555Z - 191800Z

GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION MAY WARRANT WW
WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH INITIAL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL.

VIS IMAGERY AND 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD/QUASISTATIONARY
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MO WWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NWRN
KS...CENTERED NEAR I-70...WITH WEAK MESOLOW BETWEEN SLN-CNK. 
ELEVATED TSTM COMPLEX BUILDING ACROSS NRN KS -- OVER WRN PORTION OF
THAT BOUNDARY -- WILL MOVE NEWD AND AFFECT KS/NEB BORDER REGION
BETWEEN MCK-CNK THROUGH 18Z.  OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF
SFC-850 MB FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM SERN SD SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN
NEB.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FCST TO SHIFT ENEWD FROM BOTH REGIONS
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME MERGING
POSSIBLE.  MAIN THREAT BEFORE ABOUT 18Z WILL BE OCCASIONAL LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.  THEREAFTER -- AS
ANY CONVECTION REMAINING OVER REGION INGESTS MORE WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED -- DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 8 DEG C/KM MEAN
LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG
ATTM.  PRECONVECTIVE/PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS
AND CENTRAL/SERN NEB WILL BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR SFC BASED
TSTMS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  STRONG SFC HEATING AWAY FROM
CLOUDS/PRECIP...70S F DEW POINTS AND 7-8 DEG C MEAN LAPSE RATES IN
700-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RISING ABOVE 2000 J/KG. 
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK FLOW...THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEARS OF 40-50 KT ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX.

..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

38379868 39049978 39490029 39930091 40330065 41289897
41729818 41779743 41539658 41029599 40569573 40039573
39079618 38239723 38239830 

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