[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190552 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-190715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN IND...SWRN OH AND NWRN/NCNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 190552Z - 190715Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS...GLANCING PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. 
THE LLJ HAS RESPONDED WITH VWP/PROFILERS INDICATING 30-40 KTS OF
WSWLY FLOW ARCING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VLY. 
RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A BROAD BAND OF TSTMS
FROM CNTRL IL INTO SRN IND.

PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EMANATE FROM A RESERVOIR OF MODEST CAPE
SITUATED ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY.  LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND RECENT
CNTRL IL OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AND ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS.

PROFILERS/VWP SUGGEST A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GRTLKS TROUGH...FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO
BACKBUILD TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS. BUT...POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
FOR COLD POOLS TO ELONGATE ESEWD WITH THE MEAN FLOW.  THOUGH THE
FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT...SET-UP DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ALONG THE AXIS FROM CNTRL/SERN IND INTO SWRN OH/NWRN KY THIS
MORNING.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS...BUT THE RATHER WARM MID-LEVELS/WEAK CLOUD-BEARING VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY MITIGATE HAIL PRODUCTION SOMEWHAT.

..RACY.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

40298654 40218345 38218384 38438530 38668659 

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