[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190100 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB...NRN MO/FAR SRN IA AND
WCENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 732...

VALID 190100Z - 190300Z

SEVERAL SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD POSING THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ACROSS MAINLY WRN HALF OF WW 732 FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP SLIGHTLY NWD OUT OF WW
732 INTO FAR SRN IA...BUT OVERALL NWD EXTENT OF SVR SHOULD BE
MITIGATED BY FOCUSED SSWLY INFLOW...THAT ANOTHER WW INTO SRN IA IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF
WW 732 INTO NCENTRAL/CENTRAL KS...BUT SIMILARLY THE SVR THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA
EITHER.

00Z TOPEKA AND LINCOLN IL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE TO VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. FOCUSED LIFT
ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR SLN ENEWD TO WCENTRAL IL SHOULD OFFSET INITIAL NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION AND SUPPORTING SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT EITHER A BACKBUILDING MCS
INTO THE MKC METRO AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS THAT WOULD REACH WCENTRAL IL TOWARDS 05Z. AREA VWP/S SUGGEST
THAT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE LEFT
SPLITS MAY MOVE INTO FAR SRN IA...OUT OF WW 732. HOWEVER...LIMITED
ENOUGH COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SO ANOTHER WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

..CROSBIE.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

40079669 38759670 39388943 40688941 40579295 

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