[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190228 
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-190400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI / SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 732...

VALID 190228Z - 190400Z

TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SERN WI -- MAINLY OVER SERN PORTIONS
OF WW 732.  THREAT MAY SHIFT INTO SWRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A SMALL TORNADO WATCH.

SUPERCELL NOW OVER RACINE COUNTY REMAINS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS SERN WI/WW 732 ATTM.  THIS STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER LK MI
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AFTER WHICH THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS
WW 732 SHOULD DIMINISH.

HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI -- INVOF WARM
FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY JUST S OF MKG TO NEAR TOL -- REMAINS VERY
MOIST /DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70/.  DEGREE OF MOISTURE IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE/ ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS.  WITH LATEST
GRR WSR-88D VWP CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
VEERING/SHEAR BENEATH MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT...CONDITIONS APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT.  THOUGH VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR GRB SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING
EWD/WELL N OF SRN LOWER MI...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT ALONG WARM FRONT...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...

43968907 43968792 43028560 42128476 41748483 41638743
42648852 

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