[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182027 
NDZ000-SDZ000-182230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182027Z - 182230Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 23Z ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY OF
CENTRAL SD NWD INTO FAR SCENTRAL ND. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR
SCENTRAL ND/NCENTRAL SD ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH AND
OCCLUDED LOW CENTER INTERSECTION. AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY AND TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF THIS AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MLCINH LESS THAN 25 J/KG. GIVEN SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY OF CENTRAL
SD/SCENTRAL ND BY 23Z. AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA. THUS THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED THROUGH
THAT TIME AND THUS WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE
HRS. AFTER 00Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
GREATER ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL AND THUS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...

46739951 46530033 45670095 44840096 44000069 43859963
44219883 45569890 46509894 

WWWW