[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181909 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-182045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL IA...NWRN
IL...SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI...EXTREME SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181909Z - 182045Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION...WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.  DAMAGING
GUSTS...TORNADOES AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW OVER SERN MN -- N RST AS OF
19Z -- FCST TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL WI THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON.  WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS SWRN WI INTO
OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY MORNING MCS.  WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NWD AND WRN PORTION OF OLD OUTFLOW POOL WILL FAVORABLY MODIFY. 80S
SFC TEMPS AND 70S DEW POINTS -- EVIDENT IN WARM SECTOR ALONG AND S
OF WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND
2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SFC
WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER.  THOSE VALUES -- DERIVED FROM
OBSERVED REGIONAL VWP DATA...ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN INDICATED
BY SHORT TERM RUC ANALYSES AND FCSTS...AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO
THREAT PARTICULARLY NEAR WARM FRONT.

FARTHER S...ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED VEERING OF SFC FLOW OVER MUCH OF
IA SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...HOWEVER SEVERE
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SERN MN...0-1
KM SRH APPEARS SMALL BECAUSE OF WEAKER FLOW...HOWEVER VERY LOCALIZED
AREA OF JUXTAPOSITION EXISTS BETWEEN FAVORABLE SFC VORTICITY MAX AND
LOW LEVEL CAPE FIELD.  POSSIBILITY OF NONSUPERCELL TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS THAT REGIME SHIFTS EWD ACROSS REMAINDER EXTREME SERN
MN AND LSE REGION INTO SWRN WI.

..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

41189032 41939139 42939212 43919236 44279184 44479098
44469000 44378957 44098911 43708862 43128861 42498873
41408896 41098934 

WWWW