[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182149 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-182345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/FAR SERN NEB...NWRN/NCENTRAL MO AND
WCENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182149Z - 182345Z

ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z FROM NERN KS INTO
WCENTRAL IL ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE SHEAR SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR
HAIL/WIND WILL BE LIKELY. AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR A WW IN THE
NEXT HOUR.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATED MDT-TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANHATTAN KS ENEWD TO
NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE MO. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. MODERATE
/30-35KTS/ WLY MID LVL FLOW PER REGIONAL PROFILERS IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY COMBINED WITH SELY-ENELY FLOW
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SUPERCELL STORMS. DESPITE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE BNDY LAYER...HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MODERATE
LOW LVL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 PER LATHROP PROFILER/ AND
RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND STORM MOTIONS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. GIVEN
SUSTAINED SFC-850 CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MINIMAL
CINH REMAINING...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP BY 23Z.

..CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...

40259046 40599083 40369483 40299589 40119664 39649708
38989705 38759706 38689676 39029515 39599049 

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