[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181400 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-181600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL WI...NRN
IL...SRN ALM...NWRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181400Z - 181600Z

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF SFC
WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS SRN WI.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
OVER NRN IL AS ACTIVITY NOW NEAR MS RIVER MOVES E INTO DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS AND INTENSIFIES.  AREA AHEAD OF CONVECTION IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

BOW ECHO...OVER CENTRAL PORTION IL/WI BORDER AS OF 1345Z...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG AND JUST N OF SFC WARM FRONT..ACROSS
NERN IL...TOWARD SRN LM AND NWRN INDIANA.  NRN PORTION OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS N OF FRONT
AND MERGERS WITH FOREGOING SHOWERS...HOWEVER FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
DRIFTING NWD AS AIR MASS WARMS TO ITS S.  LOW 80S SFC TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS COMMONLY MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...EXPECTED IN NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS IL...SHOULD RAISE MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS.  EXPECT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO INCREASE OVER NRN
IL WITH APCH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER MN/IA.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE AS
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WHILE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE IN SLY/SELY SFC FLOW NEAR FRONT. 
MODIFIED VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND 150-300 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH...SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW
MODES AS LIFTED PARCELS BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC BASED.

..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

40039128 40979092 42009007 42698930 42928853 42878793
42578699 42318645 42058622 41548631 40378722 39938947 

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