[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181816 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SRN
LM...SERN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 729...

VALID 181816Z - 181945Z

MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KT ACROSS NERN IL
AND SRN LM.  MEANWHILE TSTMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS
AREA BETWEEN RFD-VYS...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA...ATOP COLD POOL FROM
MCS.  LATTER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BECAUSE OF LIMITED
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  

IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE AND EXTEND SWD INTO
MORE OF WARM SECTOR...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 20Z
EXPIRATION.  IN ANY EVENT...AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN
LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH INCREASING
HEATING AND NWD LIFT OF WARM FRONT AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL E OF WW. 729.  MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEARS ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER NRN
INDIANA...INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR REVERSAL OF WEAKENING TRENDS
AND REINVIGORATION OF SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS FARTHER E.

BACK W...CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY REINFORCED/RELOCATED FRONTAL
ZONE FARTHER SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT/MOTION.  ANOTHER MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION REGARDING THAT LATER SCENARIO...EXTENDING WWD INTO
IA...WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AFTER SOME MORE
EXAMINATION.

..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

40288677 40308757 40478855 41118919 41658919 41768880
41668725 41918640 42238577 42428472 41548478 40558567 

WWWW