[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172024 
OKZ000-KSZ000-172230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCENTRAL OK...SWRN/SCENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172024Z - 172230Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 22Z ACROSS FAR NWRN OK/SWRN KS.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MDT-TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM PAWNEE AND BARTON COUNTIES OF SWRN KS
SWD INTO WOODS/ALFALFA COUNTIES IN NWRN OK. A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF DDC INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING NEWD
TOWARDS THE REGION OUT OF SRN CO/NM. ONE OF THESE IS LIKELY THE
SOURCE OF EARLY INITIATION OF AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE NRN PANHANDLE.
THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES COMBINED WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG
SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS AS MINIMAL /LESS THAN 25 J/KG/ MLCINH REMAINS. DESPITE
MODEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS /30 KTS PER GDA PROFILER/...LOW LEVEL
SSELY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NCENTRAL
OK/SCENTRAL KS WILL AID IN AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES  /- 6 TO -8 DEG C AT 500 MB/ AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 70-74 DEG F RANGE SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS IS LIKELY TO EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THAT
DO DEVELOP. ENOUGH UNCERTAINLY STILL EXISTS ON THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING THAT WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT CERTAIN.

..CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38219749 38629816 38819863 38549936 38249942 37649976
36870007 36219984 36249951 36309848 36419744 36719672
37629678 

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